Bihar election 2025 result explained: What worked for Nitish Kumar and NDA; what didn’t for Tejashwi and Mahagathbandhan
Bihar election 2025 results
explained: Nitish Kumar was fighting anti-incumbency after over 20 years
in power. And yet, the people of Bihar have handed him the mandate,
with faith in his ability to deliver on governance, the attraction of
key pre-poll schemes, and other factors.
Bihar elections 2025 results: It can often be
difficult for a four-term government to return to power, let alone with a
two-thirds majority. But that’s exactly what the National Democratic
Alliance (NDA) achieved under the leadership of Nitish Kumar in Bihar on
Friday (November 14). Nitish’s Janata Dal (United) and the BJP
headlined an alliance that seemed on course to win 202 of the Bihar
Legislative Assembly’s 243 seats as of Friday evening.
In a way, the NDA has almost repeated its 2010 performance, when the BJP-JDU combine won 206 seats, and the Lalu Prasad-led Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) was reduced to 22 seats. And yet, it holds greater significance.
The 2010 mandate was for a wave of governance reforms, from law and order to road infrastructure, that Nitish had ushered in Bihar
after 15 years of administrative apathy under the RJD rule. But by
2025, the odds were stacked against the NDA. Questions around Nitish Kumar’s
health and his government’s inability to deliver beyond roads, power
and law and order, had begun sowing seeds of dissatisfaction and
anti-incumbency.
Still, against a formidable opposition led by the RJD — which embarked
upon a spirited campaign and was emboldened by its superior performance
in the 2020 elections — the NDA has registered a stupendous victory.
Here is what worked for the ruling alliance, and what did not work for
the RJD-Congress combine.
Sustained credibility of Nitish Kumar
Despite a sense of fatigue
among voters with his 20-year-rule and a yearning for a younger
leadership, Bihar’s voters were not necessarily angry with Nitish Kumar.
In fact, there was a palpable sense of gratitude among most voters for
what he had done for Bihar, even if it was laced with the subtext of
further aspirations and demands. In a sense, the mandate shows voters
continue to believe that despite his shortcomings, Nitish is the best
bet to deliver on aspirations of the state.
The results put Nitish Kumar in the hall of fame, as one of the few
chief ministers to have tenures of more than 20 years — the others being
West Bengal’s Jyoti Basu and Odisha’s Naveen Patnaik.
In a state deeply attached to caste identities, Kumar, coming from a
caste group that is just 2.8% of Bihar’s population (the Kurmis), has
shown that through governance and tailored welfare, one can sustain
popularity across caste groups. The mandate reinforces Kumar’s
leadership of the NDA in Bihar.
Following the template set by Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and
Maharashtra governments — which were all facing anti-incumbency — the
Nitish Kumar rolled out a slew of schemes ahead of polls targeting
women, elderly and the rural poor. The key schemes rolled out by Kumar
ahead of polls included transfers of Rs 10,000 in the accounts of women
to start an enterprise; free electricity to all upto 125 units; and
enhancing the elderly pension from Rs 400 to Rs 1100.
Under the enterprise scheme for women, Bihar government transferred
Rs 10,000 in the account of 1.21 crore women just over a month before
the polls. The next instalment, in fact, came in the middle of the
elections, on November 7. In total, the Bihar government spent over Rs
20,000 crores under these newly rolled out schemes till the polls.
Measured against revenue collection, this was the biggest spending on
welfare ahead of polls by any state in the country. It constituted 7.5%
of Bihar’s total tax revenue and 32.5% of its own tax revenue
On the ground, the schemes had clear traction among women, elderly
and the rural poor. A significant number of voters that this newspaper
spoke to said they felt obligated to vote for the NDA after becoming
beneficiaries of these schemes.
Promise vs delivery
After Nitish Kumar announced a slew of schemes targeting women, the
RJD released an AI cartoon showing Nitish Kumar copying from Tejashwi’s
notes in an examination hall. Tejashwi even accused Nitish Kumar of
stealing his ideas openly.
Notably, it was Tejashwi who first announced that if voted to power
women would be given Rs 2,500 every month. It was he who mocked the
meagre pension being given to the elderly, and promised to give more. He
had also campaigned against rising power bills in the rural belts.
These were election promises that the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) or the grand
alliance was banking on to swing voters.
However, by delivering on all these, Kumar’s government dimmed the
attraction of MGB’s promises and the Bihar polls became a contest of
promises vs delivery. A desperate MGB then belatedly came up with the
poll promise of providing a government job to every household, an
announcement that even Tejashwi’s core voters from the Yadav community
were not confident he could deliver on.
Then, RJD’s key ally, the Congress, tried to rally support through its Vote Adhikar Yatra. Accompanied by Tejashwi, Rahul Gandhi
did a whirlwind tour of the state. But there were few takers for his
allegations of “vote chori”, even among the Muslims. Ultimately, the MGB
could not enthuse voters on any of the issues that it picked up ahead
of the polls.
MY vs NDA’s social bouquet
The RJD commands support of the largest collective vote bank in
Bihar, the Yadavs and Muslims, who together constitute 32% of the
state’s population. Yet, over the past two decades, the party has
struggled to add more votes to the kitty. Conversely, Nitish Kumar,
coming from the numerically small Kurmi caste, has carefully cultivated
Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), non-Yadav OBCs and Mahadalits through
tailored schemes and political representation. At his worst, Kumar
garnered 16% votes in Bihar contesting the 2014 Lok Sabha polls on his
own. These were mostly EBC and non-Yadav OBC votes.
The RJD, which once held sway over Dalits and EBCs, has lost their
support over the years. Despite overtures from Tejashwi Yadav, who
organised special sabhas for EBC communities, invoked EBC icon
Karpoori Thakur in most of his rallies, reminded people of his father’s
contribution to ushering in social justice in Bihar and allied with EBC
caste parties such as VIP and IIP, failed to instill confidence among
the community that his party could work for their welfare.
Partly, the blame lay with the RJD, which appeared to focus on
consolidating its Yadav vote base first. Of the 75 OBC candidates that
the RJD fielded, 51 were Yadavs.
The women factor
What also came to the aide of Nitish Kumar was his pioneering idea
that expansion of social base did not need to be on caste lines alone,
it could be on gender lines as well. It made particular sense in Bihar,
where a significant number of men migrate to other states for work
opportunities.
Kumar was the first leader to recognise women as a separate
constituency and targeted them with welfare schemes such as free cycles
for school-going girls way back in 2006. Since then, he has given
reservation to women in local boy polls and rolled out several schemes
for their welfare. Even the contentious prohibition imposed in 2016 was
aimed at appeasing women voters. These overtures have sustained women
voters’ confidence in Nitish’s leadership.
The shadow of the 1990s and early 2000s — Bihar’s so-called ‘jungle raj’
— continued to haunt the RJD in this election, blunting Tejashwi’s
attempts to rebrand the party for a new generation. Even though two
decades have passed since the peak of lawlessness, kidnappings, gang
wars, and unchecked bahubali dominance, memories remain vivid in rural
Bihar.
In tea shops and chaupals, voters still recall travelling home before
sunset, people shutting shop early out of fear, losing one’s vehicle
the day it is bought, and families praying their children would return
safely from school.
These recollections resurface every election season, shaping voter
behaviour more than the RJD acknowledges. Many non-Yadav OBCs, EBCs, and
Mahadalits say they fear a return to the past if the party takes power
again.
Compounding this is the assertive Yadav mobilisation seen in RJD
strongholds. While the party views it as enthusiasm, other communities
perceive it as overbearing — this often leads to reverse consolidation
of non-Yadav votes against the RJD.
